报告标题：Not in the Spread: Developer Defaults, Municipal Borrowing, and Bank Absorption in China
报告时间：2026年1月24日（周六）15:30
报告地点：翡翠科教楼B座1005会议室
报告人： 李科杨副教授
工作单位：对外经济贸易大学
举办单位：合肥工业大学经济学院
报告简介：We examine how corporate defaults propagate into public finance and the banking system by leveraging bond defaults of Chinese real estate developers in China as plausibly exogenous shocks. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design on a city–quarter panel of 263 cities from 2016 to 2022, we show that developer defaults trigger a sharp substitution from land revenues to local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds: issuance rises by 67.5%, or approximately CNY 170 billion annually. Strikingly, this borrowing expansion occurs without widening yield spreads, indicating non-market absorption. We trace this to city commercial banks, which absorb local LGFV bonds under government influence and subsequently issue subordinated debt to manage the resulting capital pressure. This transmission from real estate distress to municipal borrowing and finally to local banks highlights a novel fiscal-financial risk channel. Our findings extend the literature on state-owned banks, local government debt, and systemic risk by demonstrating how fiscal institutions exacerbate financial fragility when market discipline fails.
报告人简介：李科杨，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授，SSCI期刊China Economic Review副主编。主要研究领域为公共经济学、城市与房地产经济学。在Journal of Public Economics、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Urban Economics、Journal of Human Resources、经济学（季刊）等国内外一流经济学期刊发表论文十余篇。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目，获得亚洲房地产学会年会最佳论文奖、世界华人不动产学会年会最佳论文奖（特等奖）、中国房地产学术研讨会最佳论文奖（一等奖）等学术荣誉和奖励。
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