经济学院学术报告之孟宪明(二): The determinants of Australian household debt: results from a cointegrated VAR model

2017-12-19, 星期二

报告时间:2017年12月26日(星期二)10:00-11:00

报告地点:翡翠湖校区科教B楼1101

报告人:孟宪明教授

工作单位:澳大利亚新英格兰大学

举办单位:经济学院

报告人简介:

孟宪明博士,澳大利亚新英格兰大学高级研究员,博导。研究领域广泛,包括旅游经济学、能源和环境经济学、金融经济学、农业经济学、经济增长与循环。出版2本专著,在Tourism Management、Environmental and Resources Economics、Energy Economics、Energy Policy、Tourism Analysis, Agriculture Economics、Tourism Economics、Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing、Economic Modelling、Applied Economics、Natural Resource Research、Journal of Asian Economics等A类SSCI(SCI)期刊共计发表学术论文30多篇。多次担任上述期刊评审专家及博士论文评审专家。申请并完成多个科研项目, 包括两个澳洲顶级类项目:澳洲研究理事会(ARC)工业合作项目‘适应碳税引发的澳洲城乡能源需求变动’和澳洲研究理事会(ARC)发现项目‘加深对低碳政策影响的理解’。

报告简介:

 This paper employs a cointegrated Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to explore the determinants of Australian household debt. The results show that the housing prices, GDP and the population in the economy affect household borrowing positively. Meanwhile, interest rates, unemployment rate, the number of new dwellings and inflation are found to have a negative effect on Australian household debt; of these, interest rates are the most significant. Based on these results, it is judicious to rein in household debt in the economic booms through monitoring and intervening in assets market and using the monetary policy timely, comprehensively, and carefully.

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